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Friday, October 3, 2008

Forex Expert Advisors - Automated Systems Generally Lose Money Here's Why

By Kelly Price

Forex expert advisors are all the rage and traders buy these automated systems and expect to re produce the track record presented and end up losing their money and this is due to one simple fact...

The track records are in most instances simply not real.

If you are presented with a track record by a forex expert advisor, you are told you can expect the same but this in the overwhelming majority of cases is simply not true. Why?

If you look at the track record you will normally see the words "simulated in hindsight" on it. All this means is - the vendor has tested it on back data and then bent the rules to fit and make it profitable.

Some of the track records (if they were real) would out perform the best fund managers in the world but of course there done knowing all the closing prices and when the system is traded going forward, you cannot bend the rules and they lose.

No two pieces of historical data will replicate exactly again and that's a fact.

There are some forex expert advisors that do have winning software - but don't expect to get it for $100 or so, expect to pay thousands. While these systems can make money long term (a good one will do 30 - 100% annually) you will still have weeks of drawdown and losses to trade through. Don't believe anyone who tells you that you can trade without drawdown you can't - you will lose short term, that's just the nature of trading.

Ask yourself the following question:

If the forex trading system is so good and can give me an income for life, why does it cost $100 or so?

The answer we have just told you and the old saying applies - if it looks to good to be true it probably is, there is no free lunch in life and especially not in forex trading.

If you want to win you can - but you need to get a proven system or build your own.

Building your own is much simpler than many traders think and is covered in our other articles. The advantage of doing this is, you will understand why it works and will have confidence in it and will be able to trade it with discipline through losses until you hit a home run.

Don't ever think forex trading is a walk in the park - its not, its hard to win and you would also expect it to be, with the huge rewards offered. The good news is with the right education and mindset; you can enjoy currency trading success but don't be tempted by a forex expert advisor with a simulated track record to bring you success.


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