What Russian War Means For the Euro

By Joe Gelet

The conflict in Georgia is greatly affecting the Euro across the board. What does this all mean, and where should investors go?

FX is extremely sensitive to politics, because a shift in a domestic political system can be directly connected to a currency's value. For example, the Chinese government announcement that the Yuan would float, albeit a 'soft peg' to the USD, shattered the relationship between a previously pegged Yuan and the USD. Many watching the situation in Georgia are unaware how this impacts them, and how it impacts FX. Also, this war, like many wars, is an information war, and the media spin leaves viewers with a less than accurate picture of reality.

The strength of the Euro over the past 5 years has been in part, not European strength as much as American weakness. A combination of economic factors in the US has made investors fear the USD and purchase non-USD based assets in Euros and other foreign currencies. Also, the Fed has been lowering US interest rates to a finally negative real interest rate.

The recent strength in the USD is not USD strength per se, but Euro weakness. The fear is that Europe will be involved in a war with Russia, and energy will be involved. Russia supplies 25% of the EU's energy needs and over 50% to many Eastern European states, and the EU is Russia's largest trading partner, totaling $285 Billion.

Immediately after the 4% drop in the Euro in 2 days, Bank of America issued a warning to its' customers summarizing the situation that, although the USD is showing signs of recovery, a war in Europe does not solve the fundamentally flawed US economy, and they expect further USD weakness.

Russia's involvement in Europe is not only energy. The US has planned military bases in many eastern-bloc countries, one of which has been signed during the crisis in Georgia

One problem with Europeans is they cannot agree. This is what makes Europe charming and culture-rich but politically complex. USA is a 'melting-pot' which has become a mono-culture based on corporatism, while American's argue their thinking lies in the same direction. Since the US Civil war, US mono-culture has solidified the mainstream in a view that always agrees on some tenets, this is not the case in Europe. Entry into the EU and the Euro passed referendum in many EU states by thin margins, there are those who would like to revert back to national currencies.

One main difference between the Euro and other currencies: the Euro does not have a government behind it. Individual EU states retain their sovereignty, and those states central banks have essentially no power to influence the Euro directly, except for lobbying the ECB. So the Euro is a designer currency hanging on a thin margin, which could be toppled by a severe energy crisis should the situation with Russia escalate. US involvement in Eastern European countries will only increase the chances of Russia's will to turn off the lights.

Russia has already quietly begun selling oil in Rubles, and announced the Ruble is fully convertible (since 2006). While by itself these actions are not market-shattering, combined with the potential conflict in Georgia, and Russia's aggressive policy to capitalize on their vast wealth in natural resources, a situation is brewing in Europe which can be potentially explosive. Any turmoil can be seen as bad for the Euro, regardless of the actual damage done. The disadvantage of Europe is it's history: Europe has been involved in wars and currency devaluations. As poor as the US economic numbers are, the US is involved in foreign wars at its leisure, there is no compelling reason the US should be involved in any war.

Russia can also affect emerging markets which it may be forced to trade with, such as India, China, and Brazil. Russian oil could help a growing Chinese economy and decrease Russia's dependence on European customers. In a complex environment a static forecast is not possible, but it is clear any instability or even the perception of instability close to Europe will be negative for the Euro. Elite E Services believes the next bubble to pop will be the Euro bubble.

Long term, this is a buying opportunity for hard commodities such as Wheat, Swiss Francs, Oil, and Gold. Whatever happens in this war, the supply side in the Oil market is controlled by unfriendly countries such as Venezuela and Iran. If Russia is now added to the list of unfriendly countries, we can expect Oil to increase long term, as Russia will use this as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

This move has been excellent for CTA's trading momentum and trend-based strategies. For short term gains in the FX or Commodities markets, investors can seek CTA's with established track records or automated trading systems, which are performing very well in environments like this. In fact, desynchronized markets are ideal for systems that monitor and analyze discreet price data vs. fundamentals.

Elite E Services is a registered CTA with the CFTC and NFA Member (#373609). eliteeservices.net

Forex News - How Can it Affect Currency Trading?

By Korbin Newlyn

Regardless of whether you are simply playing around in Forex or doing a full-blown Forex trading situation, it is critical that you remain on top of the Forex news around the globe that could potentially effect your investments. As a matter of fact, some of the day traders around the globe say that following the news throughout the world can be somewhat addictive. With the globalization and decentralization of the news each and every day, it appears there is constantly something of interest that is happening.

Financial News

Just to give you a few examples that are interesting from recent Forex news stories that FX day traders have encountered. Forex currencies are always traded in a pairs type of situation, so stories typically refer to two different currencies. These forex news stories directly are correlated to finance and currency.

- A recent story that indicated that traders had just tipped to a net short position right on the same day that the British pound increased to a 200 plus point rally.

- Forex trader carefully monitors the U.S. housing slump, trying to estimate the market for the mortgage futures.

- When the United States federal reserve made it's latest rate cut, one Forex news service indicated that the overall expectations for the U.S. Dollar were "falling like a rock".

- Fears of a recession within the United States might drive the
US dollar even lower than it already it is. (In Forex tradig, the reality that the dollar falls is not thought of as a negative, provided that the trader leverages the fall when making a trade for higher priced, higher value currencies around the world).

Political News

Financial and currency news are not just the only stories of news of interests to Forex traders as well as investors. Forex traders also have a lot of interest in political news that may have an impact on different countries currencies.

- Events that are tragic such as a political leader getting assassinated can effect the currency futures in the nation where the events happen and can also have a trickle down effect to the surrounding areas; for instance, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

- Disasters of the natural kind, such as a hurricane or typhoon or even an earthquake has the capability of consuming a great deal of a nations resources. Hence, Forex traders watch news of these types of natural disasters.

- Political events, such as the U.S. presidential election cycle has substantial consequences on the valuation of currency; hence, Forex news incorporates updates on presidential candidates, general elections, primary elections.

Listen to Korbin Newlyn as he shares his insights as an expert author and an avid writer in the field of finance. If you would like to learn more go to Forex Trading education and at Automated Forex Trading tips.

Forex Trading News Tips

By Tyler Ziggler

I wanted to share with you some forex trading news tips. A lot of people under estimate the value of the news. They to themselves that they don't have anything related to currency. They never talk about the forex market. How is that going to help me? It's just going to waste my time. If you look at it that simply, than it will look like a big waste of time and not worth pursuing and I suppose that is exactly why most people don't watch it. The news doesn't talk directly to the forex community, but it does talk about the economy which directly influences in the forex market. I'm going to share with you what you should be looking out for, so you can get the most information out.

The first thing to understand is that we live in a fiat currency world. That means money is just essentially paper and it's backed by nothing else. Typically if a currency was on the gold standard, that would mean for every dollar printed, there would have to be gold for it. Since this doesn't apply the central banks in a country have to try to follow the supply and demand of the currency in the economy. This is a next to impossible task. If they raise interest rates, the price of currency should go up. If they drop interest rates, the price of currency should go down.

There is also the major economic events that are released every month like unemployment, consumer spending, GDP, etc. They're easy to figure out. If it is good economic news, than it is good for the currency. If it is bad economic news, than it is bad for the currency.

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Forex News - Discover the Secrets

By John Callingham

The Foreign Exchange market takes place wherever one currency is traded for another. Also referred to as the Forex, FX, or currency market, the Foreign Exchange market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. Here, large banks, central banks, governments, multinational corporations, currency speculators, and other financial markets and institutions trade to reach their ultimate goal of making profit. According to reports on Forex news, the average daily trade in the international Forex market, including related markets, is currently almost US$4 trillion. That's a lot of money, and you might want to have a share.

Through the use of the Internet, you can discover the well-kept secrets to becoming a successful Forex trader, making you earn not just a healthy income, but a robust profit, if you dare. The first thing you have to do, of course, is to read up on the subject so you can be better informed and thus, make better money-making decisions. You have to read articles related to Forex news.

One of the most important things that you have to understand is that there are a number of factors that affect foreign currency trading. Ultimately, currency prices in the Forex market are dictated by the result of supply and demand forces, as with any other market in the world. However, in order to make sense of patterns, you'll do well to consider several factors, including economic issues and political conditions. Being regularly updated on Forex news is vital to your success as a foreign currency trader.

The economic factors include economic policies embraced by one country and disseminated by agencies of a government and its central banks, economic conditions, which are manifested through economic reports, and other economic indicators. The most important of these factors is economic policy. This encompasses a government fiscal policy, which pertains to the budget or spending practices of an entire nation, and monetary policy, through which a government's central bank influences the cost and supply of money, which is then reflected by the rise or fall of interest rates. Economic conditions, on the other hand, include everything from the way the government budget deficits of surpluses, inflation levels and trends, the balance of trade levels and trends, and the overall economic growth and health of a country. You can find Forex news about global economics in the news, whether on a cable television channel or in a section of a newspaper.

The political factors include internal, regional, and international political conditions and events that can have a significant effect on currency markets and one country's currency value. The most common example of this is political upheaval and instability, manifested by strong and constant protests out in the streets against a government. The presence of this kind of activity creates a negative impact on a nation's economy, resulting to a fall in the value of its currency.

Now you know how important it is to tune in to Forex news. Keep yourself updated and you're sure to be ten steps ahead in becoming a successful foreign currency trader.

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